I’m hearing a lot of mixed messages these days about the economy. Some headlines say we’re already in a recession; some say one is looming. Others hint that we’ll avoid a recession and have a soft landing. It makes you wonder who’s in charge of putting a label on the economy.
I did a little digging on the topic, and here’s what I found.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of recessions. A recession is a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” You may be surprised that the NBER no longer defines back-to-back quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product growth as a recession–that’s considered old-school economics.
While the current economy includes inflation and rising interest rates, it’s also creating jobs. This economy created over half a million jobs in July alone. Given that indicator, I think it’s safe to say that our economy is expanding, not receding.
An old saying goes, “Don’t worry about the horse. Just load the wagon.” It’s a good time to stay focused on your goals and not worry too much about what you can’t change.
This material contains forward looking statements and projections. There are no guarantees that these results will be achieved. It is our goal to help investors by identifying changing market conditions; however, investors should be aware that no investment advisor can accurately predict all of the changes that may occur in the economy or the stock market.
Recession or Growth Scare? Your Guide
September 12, 2022